Tampa Bay Appraiser's Blog

Migration out of Florida had started before the financial market collapsed and the recession kicked in. In 2009, more than 500,000 people left, and for the first time since World War II, Florida’s population actually shrank by about 60,000 people, analysts estimate.

Growth has slowed in many locations in the country as the recession slows Americans’ ability to sell their homes and move. But in many ways, the slowdown is more pronounced in Florida as one of the country’s leaders in bank foreclosures and consequently it leads the way in the loss of equity in homes as well.

Florida’s shrinking population is a disturbing trend for a state that has built its economy, and structured its state budget, on the assumption that throngs of new residents will move to the “Sunshine State”.

Florida will no doubt attract new residents again with its warm climate and low taxes, economists believe. And the state should still be on course to move ahead of New York as the country’s 3rd ranked populace state. However, Florida’s growth in the future will probably be slower than in the past. This may not be totally bad thing as the slow down may give the state time to breath and make some difficult decisions about growth, tax structure and environmental issues that are at the heart of the growth issue.

Can baby boomers help Florida’s economy? Florida’s population is predicted to rise between 2015 and 2020. Some of that increase will be the pent-up desire of baby boomers that want to move from the north east section of the U.S. that have traditionally fed Florida’s growth and real estate sales.

The state must be careful in betting our future on the fact that the rising number of retirees moving to Florida will save the state. How, where and when the boomers retire is an unknown quantity at this time given the overall losses in retirement accounts and in their homes. Some are not seriously affected by the economy, but most will need to wait for the return of better financial times to retire as planned. Also, let’s not forget that Florida competes with other states for retirees.

For many Florida residents, a growth slowdown is not such a bad thing. It keeps the state from becoming more populated and slows down all of the problems that come with growth, the overcrowding, more traffic congestion, and the ability to enjoy the Florida life-style, lower cost of living; the temperate winters; the natural beauty of our beaches and the outdoors.
Any thoughts or comments from our readers are always appreciated.

Dave Tipton, Broker- Florida’s Beautiful Homes

813-653-1241

E-Mail: Dave@BrandonsBeautifulHomes.Com

The Appraisal Institute, an appraisal industry trade organization, just posted some newsworthy information. The federal government does not regulate appraisal management companies (AMC’s). Only six states to date have enacted legislation on them. Sixteen states report that they plan on legislation in 2010. Florida plans to have a law governing AMC’s in place by July 2010.  The Home Valuation Code of Conduct Appraisal Institute is actively seeking to encourage the regulation of AMC’s. Well, by the time anything is accomplished in regards to this, the banks will have seen stabilized in the vast majority of markets.  All of the bad or questionable appraisers will hopefully have jumped ship and found another vocation.  Maybe the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) which establishes standards for solicitation, selection, compensation, conflicts of interest and appraiser independence. It was effective May 1, 2009, for any mortgage that will be sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac; Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) mortgages are not covered under this agreement. Maybe HVCC isn’t all bad. This means more work for those appraisers down the road who are just surviving now. continue reading…

Florida is reportedly ground zero for mortgage fraud in the nation according to officials with the FBI. An intensive, nine-month federal investigation of mortgage fraud that stretched from Jacksonville to Tampa and Fort Myers has resulted in charges against 105 people, says a federal spokesperson.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office reported that the joint investigation with the FBI and other federal and state agencies involved more than $400 million in residential loans procured by fraud on more than 700 properties.

Those charged in the surge range from investors to real estate and title agents, and the officers and owners of mortgage companies.

Tampa Bay area banks reported $213 million in losses from mortgage fraud in the last fiscal year, which accounts for about 8 percent of the losses nationally due to mortgage fraud.

In Tampa, the surge netted 30 defendants, who authorities said caused fraudulent mortgages that totaled more than $103 million on 313 bay area properties.

Dave Tipton, Broker ~ Florida’s Beautiful Homes

813-653-1241

Free Tampa Bay Area MLS Search

Riverhills Subdivision Market Update
as of 10/31/2009

After a review of the Riverhills Subdivision in Valrico, FL, it was evident that over the last three months there was a slight rise in median sales values. Currently, the median value for Riverhills is $285,000. This is up from the previous three months at $267,000. The average sales price was stable at $270,000. Prices have been stable over the last 12 months. Historically, this is one of the most stable communities in Hillsborough County unaffected by large amounts of foreclosures and short sales.

From 10/01 thru 10/31/09

Sold  Low Price- $179,000

Sold High Price- $645,000

Median Price $289,000

Median Days On Market 72 – 150

Current Active Listings- 34

Current Pending Sales- 9

Riverhills Subdivision Homes Market Analysis

Statistics from GTAR MLS

Analysis of the data in the above chart extracted from the GTAR MLS indicates that the Riverhills Subdivision is a stable real estate market. This is believed to be due to a decreasing supply of homes for sale and an increase in demand for homes. This phenomenon indicates that the supply and demand is not in balance. The days a home spends on the market is between one and three. There is no evidence of sellers dropping there home prices to entice buyers therefore leaving the median home values stable over the past year.

If you have any questions about Riverhills subdivision or the status of any other market area, give us a call.

In your corner,

Jon Tipton- Florida Certified Residential Appraiser

813-391-6121

Free Tampa Bay MLS Search